新規更新June 07, 2018 at 02:35AM
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Recesión global
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[[Archivo:GDP Real Growth.svg|270px|thumb|Countries by real [[Gross domestic product|GDP]] growth rate (2009).]]
[[Archivo:Countries by Real GDP Growth Rate (2014).svg|270px|thumb|Countries by real GDP growth rate (2014).]]
[[Archivo:BankingCrises.svg|thumb|Number of countries having a banking crisis in each year since 1800. This is based on [https://ift.tt/RE4ck6 This time is different: Eight centuries of financial folly], which covers only 70 countries. The general upward trend might be attributed to many factors. One of these is a gradual increase in the percent of people who receive money for their labor. The dramatic feature of this graph is the virtual absence of banking crises during the period of the [[Bretton Woods agreement]], 1945 to 1971. This analysis is similar to Figure 10.1 in Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). For more details see the help file for "bankingCrises" in the Ecdat package available from the [[R (programming language)|Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN)]].]]
Una '''recesión global''' es una [[recesión]] que en un mismo momento o período afecta a varios países del mundo, o sea, es un período de desaceleración económica mundial o de producción económica en declive.
== Definitions ==
The [[International Monetary Fund]] defines a global recession as "a decline in annual percapita real World GDP ([[purchasing power parity]] weighted), backed up by a decline or worsening for one or more of the seven other global macroeconomic indicators: Industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption, unemployment rate, percapita investment, and percapita consumption".<ref name="New IMF Global Recession definition">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref><ref name="IMF WEO 2009">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref>
According to this definition, since [[World War II]] there were only four global recessions (in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009), all of them only lasting a year (although the 1991 recession would have lasted until 1993 if the IMF had used normal exchange rate weighted percapita real World GDP rather than the [[purchasing power parity]] weighted percapita real World GDP).<ref name="New IMF Global Recession definition" /><ref name="IMF WEO 2009" /> The 2009 global recession, also known as the [[Great Recession]], was by far the worst of the four postwar recessions, both in terms of the number of countries affected and the decline in real World GDP per capita.<ref name="New IMF Global Recession definition" /><ref name="IMF WEO 2009" />
Before April 2009, the IMF argued that a global annual [[real GDP]] growth rate of 3.0 percent or less was "equivalent to a global recession".<ref name="economist-12381879">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref><ref>Lall, Subir. "IMF Predicts Slower World Growth Amid Serious Market Crisis," International Monetary Fund, April 9, 2008. [http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES040908A.htm]</ref> By this measure, there were six global recessions since 1970: 1974–75,<ref name="IMF0901">https://ift.tt/1dlqQIE IMF Jan 2009 update</ref> 1980–83,<ref name="IMF0901" /> 1990–93,<ref name="b1" /> 1998,<ref name="b1" /> 2001–02,<ref name="b1" /> and 2008–09.<ref name="IMF1301">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref>
== Overview ==
Informally, a national [[recession]] is a period of declining economic output. In a 1974 ''[[New York Times]]'' article, [[Julius Shiskin]] suggested several [[rules of thumb]] to identify a recession, which included two successive quarterly declines in [[gross domestic product]] (GDP), a measure of the nation's output.<ref>Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref> This two-quarter metric is now a commonly held definition of a recession. In the United States, the [[National Bureau of Economic Research]] (NBER) is regarded as the authority which identifies a recession and which takes into account several measures in addition to GDP growth before making an assessment. In many developed nations (but not the United States), the two-quarter rule is also used for identifying a recession.<ref>[https://ift.tt/2JkjP0n Japan's Economy Shrinks 0.4%, Confirming Recession]
By Jason Clenfield</ref>
Whereas a national recession is identified by two quarters of decline, defining a '''global recession''' is more difficult, because a [[Developing country]] is expected to have a higher GDP growth than a [[Developed country]].<ref name="imf-weo-2008-03">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref> According to the IMF, the real GDP growth of the emerging and developing countries is on an uptrend and that of advanced economies is on a downtrend since late 1980s. The world growth is projected to slow from 5% in 2007 to 3.75% in 2008 and to just over 2% in 2009. Downward revisions in GDP growth vary across regions. Among the most affected are commodity exporters, and countries with acute external financing and [[Liquidity risk|liquidity problems]]. Countries in [[East Asia]] (including [[China]]) have suffered smaller declines because their financial situations are more robust. They have benefited from falling commodity prices and they have initiated a shift toward macroeconomic policy easing.<ref name="imf-weo-2008-03" />
The IMF estimates that global recessions occur over a cycle lasting between eight and ten years. During what the IMF terms the past three global recessions of the last three decades, global per capita output growth was zero or negative.<ref name="b1">Liquid error: wrong number of arguments (1 for 2)</ref>
==See also==
*[[2000s energy crisis]]
*[[2007–08 world food price crisis]]
*[[Financial crisis of 2007–08]]
*[[Great Recession]]
*[[Great Depression]]
==References==
==External links==
*[https://ift.tt/2M35G9T The Thirty-Five Most Tumultuous Years in Monetary History]: Shocks and Financial Trauma, by Robert Aliber. Presented at the IMF
*[https://ift.tt/2JmALDH Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions] The National Bureau Of Economic Research
*[https://ift.tt/2M35IP3 Independent Analysis of Business Cycle Conditions] - American Institute for Economic Research (AIER)
[[Category:Recessions]]
[[Category:Market trends]]
[[Category:World economy]]
https://ift.tt/2JmANeN
